Sales followed the season. The campaigns did not.

The campaigns were built on the owners’ preferences, not on customer demand. The products to push were the ones the company was most attached to, and the belief was that, with enough advertising, they would sell in any period.

The numbers said otherwise. In summer, discount promotions ran on low-priced items, and on Meta the advertising for those products cost more than the sales it generated.

On Google the situation was similar: in the spring and summer months spend had grown by over 90% compared with the previous year, while sales attributed to the campaigns had fallen by almost 10%. More budget did not bring more revenue, because it went to the wrong products at the wrong time.

Proposing to change products meant touching choices seen as part of the company’s identity. Every proposal was read as one opinion against another, and on that ground the owners always had the last word.

To get past that barrier, a more convincing opinion was not what was needed; it was data that could not be disputed. I cross-referenced the store’s order history with the campaign data: not what the company wanted to sell, but what customers had actually bought, month by month. Three things came out of it.

• Seasonality is the first driver of sales. Each period has a category that leads it: outdoor containers in spring and autumn, decorations in the weeks before the holidays. Outside their season, the same products sell little even with a large budget.
• Discounts are not needed when the demand is there. In peak periods traffic buys at full price; a discount reduces margin without adding orders. The right levers are basket value and the seasonal deadline, not price.
• Businesses were already buying, but no campaign spoke to them. Roughly one order in eight included a company name: design practices, contractors, commercial businesses. Their average order value was almost double that of private customers. They came from generic traffic, with no message aimed at them.

Put on the table alongside the real orders, these numbers shifted the discussion: no longer which products were liked best, but which products customers bought in each period. The new strategy started from there.

1. A promotional calendar by season, with budget, products and messages decided by the demand in each period, not by catalogue preferences.
2. No more discount promotions on low-ticket products. In peak periods products sell at full price, with the focus on the seasonal deadline.
3. Budget on the seasonal product: in autumn, outdoor containers to set up before winter and a new autumn decorative line.
4. A message dedicated to businesses, with creatives and copy designed for those buying for a project or a venue, running alongside the one for private customers on the same product.
5. An earlier start to the holiday season: the pre-sale of Christmas decorations, for private customers and businesses, opens weeks earlier than the previous year.

Daily ad spend stayed similar to the previous months. What changed was where it went: seasonal products, new messages and part of the budget moved from Google to Meta.

Comparison between the first six weeks of the new strategy and the eight summer weeks before it, on the sales recorded by the store. Daily ad spend stayed similar: +12%.

Store revenue

• Compared with the previous weeks, with the same spend: +131%.
• Compared with the same weeks of the previous year: +177%.

The season explains only a small part of the growth: the previous year, in the same shift from summer to autumn, revenue had grown by 11%, against 131% this year.

The message for businesses

On Meta the same product was also promoted with a message dedicated to businesses.

• Sales for every euro of advertising: almost €4 with the message for businesses.
• Order value: purchases from the message for businesses were worth on average more than three times those from the seasonal decorative line.

In a seasonal business the calendar decides before the budget. The same product, with the same ad, performs very differently depending on the month. Before asking how much to spend, decide what to spend on in that period.

Promote what the market is looking for, not what you prefer to sell. The products the company cares about most are not always the ones customers are looking for at that moment. Past orders show which products sell in each season: those are the ones to put the budget on.

A conviction is changed with data, not opinions. When a choice is tied to the company’s identity, arguing about it rarely leads anywhere. Real orders, month by month, move the discussion from preferences to facts, and make possible a decision that previously seemed impossible.

Discounts are a tool for weak periods. When the demand is there, a discount takes margin from orders that would have come anyway. In peak periods the seasonal deadline and offers that raise the basket value work better.

Your orders include customers your advertising has never spoken to. The businesses that bought from this store had never been the target of a dedicated message. One field in the shipping address was enough to find them.

With the same budget, what matters is where you put it. Before increasing the budget, check that the current one is on the right products, periods and customers.

Four checks to run on your store

1. Sales by month and by category. From previous years’ orders: which category leads each month. Move the budget accordingly.
2. Discount campaigns in peak months. If a discount is active when demand is already high, check whether it adds orders or only takes away margin.
3. Orders with a company name. How many there are, what they are worth, what they buy. If they are a significant share, they deserve their own message.
4. Comparisons with the same spend. To judge a change of strategy, compare store sales with a period of similar spend, and check how much the same seasonal shift changed the year before.